Tag
Expected points
4 posts tagged “Expected points”.
FPL is a skill game — the evidence, and what not to learn from champions
Multi-season research says the same managers finish high at rates chance can't produce. Here's the proof the process matters, the survivorship traps in every champion interview, and the rank-context rule that ties it all together. Part three of three.
Expected points without the false precision
xPts is most useful as a comparison tool, not a promise. Here is how to read the number, the gap between players, and the uncertainty underneath.
How SmartPlay picks a captain — and why your mini-league changes the answer
Most captain advice hands everyone the same name. The right pick depends on expected points and where you sit in your mini-league. Here's how the model reasons about both.
When is a transfer actually worth four points?
A hit is not simply incoming xPts minus four. The real comparison includes the player you sell, the planning horizon, captaincy, and the value of waiting.