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Expected points
3 posts tagged “Expected points”.
24 July 2026 · 4 min read
Expected points without the false precision
xPts is most useful as a comparison tool, not a promise. Here is how to read the number, the gap between players, and the uncertainty underneath.
23 July 2026 · 3 min read
How SmartPlay picks a captain — and why your mini-league changes the answer
Most captain advice hands everyone the same name. The right pick depends on expected points and where you sit in your mini-league. Here's how the model reasons about both.
22 July 2026 · 4 min read
When is a transfer actually worth four points?
A hit is not simply incoming xPts minus four. The real comparison includes the player you sell, the planning horizon, captaincy, and the value of waiting.